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AI win probability
Explainable model
54%
AI correction
-1.8%
Final prediction
52%
Average error
0.875%
Scaling
Malphite
early
(-1.7%)
Nocturne
v.early
(-4.2%)
Vex
early
(-2.5%)
Ashe
early
(-1.3%)
Pyke
mid
(+0.4%)
Ally: V. earlygame (-9.2%)
Volibear
early
(-2.4%)
Kayn
late
(+1.4%)
Aurora
late
(+2.1%)
Twitch
v.late
(+5.8%)
Morgana
early
(-0.7%)
Enemy: V. lategame (+6.3%)
Relative strong earlygame advantage (-16%)
*Av. change in winrate (%) from minute 20->40
Version
Silver
Matchups
MalphiteVolibear
NocturneKayn
VexAurora
AsheTwitch
PykeMorgana
Games38015042951250476
% Ally winrate50.9%49.8%51.9%50.1%50.5%
% Enemy winrate49.3%48.8%48.7%50.3%51.9%
% Expected winrate50.8%50.5%51.6%49.9%49.3%
% Actual winrate49.6%51.2%54.2%48.7%51.6%
Stat sig.0.70.710.840.80.86
Change-1.2%+0.7%+2.6%-1.2%+2.3%
Difficultyhardeasyeasyhardeasy
Synergy tiers
Ally
B
(-1.9%)
Enemy
C
(-11%)
Sum of synergy winrates changes

Version
Silver
Synergy tiers
Ally
B
-1.9%
Enemy
C
-11%
Sum of synergy winrates changes

Team stats
Enemy team has:
High AP - Buy MR (Spirit Visage, Abyssal Mask, Malmortius, Sterak's Gage, Banshee's, Edge of Night)
High AD - Buy armor (Randuin's, Thornmail, Frozen Heart, Death's Dance, Guardian Angel)
High general damage - Buy health & sustain (Warmog's, Deadman's, Sunfire, Randuin's, Frozen Heart)
High tank - Buy armor pen (Kraken, Blade-OTRK, Liandry's, Serylda's grudge, Lord Dominik's,)
High heal - Buy anti-heal (Thornmail, Mortal Reminder, Executioner's Calling, Morellonomicon)
Ally synergies
GamesWr % changeSynergy
Class
AshePyke1034-1.7%-ve
NocturneVex533+3.7%++ve
MalphiteAshe1092-3.2%--ve
MalphiteVex431+3.1%++ve
VexAshe672-2.1%-ve
NocturnePyke856-1.9%-ve
MalphitePyke784+1.1%+ve
NocturneAshe1418-0.9%-ve
MalphiteNocturne827+0.1%even
VexPyke456-0.1%even
Enemy synergies
GamesWr % changeSynergy Class
TwitchMorgana356-0.2%even
VolibearTwitch622-4.5%--ve
KaynTwitch1412-2.9%--ve
VolibearAurora360-2.5%--ve
VolibearMorgana380+2.3%+ve
AuroraTwitch590-1.5%-ve
VolibearKayn963-1.2%-ve
AuroraMorgana281-0.6%even
KaynMorgana851+0.2%even
KaynAurora839-0.1%even
Cross lane interactions
Games% wr
change		Counter
Class
PykeKayn1215-3.1%--ve
NocturneVolibear683+2.3%+ve
MalphiteAurora417+2.3%+ve
NocturneTwitch998+2.2%+ve
AsheVolibear813-2.2%-ve
AsheMorgana797-2.1%-ve
MalphiteMorgana484+2.1%+ve
VexMorgana257-2.1%-ve
PykeTwitch856+2%+ve
MalphiteKayn1268+2%+ve
NocturneAurora639+1.8%+ve
VexTwitch454+1.3%+ve
MalphiteTwitch959+1.3%+ve
NocturneMorgana619+1.2%+ve
PykeVolibear592+0.7%even
VexKayn632-0.6%even
VexVolibear302-0.5%even
AsheAurora872-0.4%even
AsheKayn1937+0.2%even
PykeAurora565+0.1%even
Ally synergies
GamesWr % changeSynergy
Class
AshePyke1034-1.7%-ve
NocturneVex533+3.7%++ve
MalphiteAshe1092-3.2%--ve
MalphiteVex431+3.1%++ve
VexAshe672-2.1%-ve
NocturnePyke856-1.9%-ve
MalphitePyke784+1.1%+ve
NocturneAshe1418-0.9%-ve
MalphiteNocturne827+0.1%even
VexPyke456-0.1%even
Enemy synergies
GamesWr % changeSynergy Class
TwitchMorgana356-0.2%even
VolibearTwitch622-4.5%--ve
KaynTwitch1412-2.9%--ve
VolibearAurora360-2.5%--ve
VolibearMorgana380+2.3%+ve
AuroraTwitch590-1.5%-ve
VolibearKayn963-1.2%-ve
AuroraMorgana281-0.6%even
KaynMorgana851+0.2%even
KaynAurora839-0.1%even
Cross lane interactions
Games% wr
change		Counter
Class
PykeKayn1215-3.1%--ve
NocturneVolibear683+2.3%+ve
MalphiteAurora417+2.3%+ve
NocturneTwitch998+2.2%+ve
AsheVolibear813-2.2%-ve
AsheMorgana797-2.1%-ve
MalphiteMorgana484+2.1%+ve
VexMorgana257-2.1%-ve
PykeTwitch856+2%+ve
MalphiteKayn1268+2%+ve
NocturneAurora639+1.8%+ve
VexTwitch454+1.3%+ve
MalphiteTwitch959+1.3%+ve
NocturneMorgana619+1.2%+ve
PykeVolibear592+0.7%even
VexKayn632-0.6%even
VexVolibear302-0.5%even
AsheAurora872-0.4%even
AsheKayn1937+0.2%even
PykeAurora565+0.1%even
AI % win calculation
Weighted contribution of winrates, matchups, & synergies to achieve an accurate prediction of win likelihood
See verification of AI model       
Ally winrates
ChampionMalphiteNocturneVexAshePyke
Winrate (-50)+1.8%+1.4%-1.1%-0.3%-3.6%
Weight0.20.20.20.30.2
Contribution+0.4%+0.4%-0.3%-0.1%-0.8%
Sum of contributions
-0.4%
Enemy winrates (their pov)
VolibearKaynAuroraTwitchMorgana
Winrate (-50)+0.3%+1.2%-3.1%+0.8%+1.7%
Weight-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.2
Contribution-0.1%-0.3%+0.7%-0.2%-0.4%
Sum of contributions
-0.2% (+0.2%)
Matchups
0
MalphiteVolibear
NocturneKayn
VexAurora
AsheTwitch
PykeMorgana
Sum of contributions
+1.3%
Ally synergies
Sum of wr changes-1.9%
Weight0.1
Sum of contributions
-0.2%
Enemy synergies
Sum of winrates-11%
Weight-0.1
Sum of contributions
+1.4% (-1.4%)
Cross lane interactions
Sum of winrates+8.6%
Weight0.2
Sum of contributions
+2.1%
For explainable model, sum all contributions
& add 50:
AI model corrects prediction (-1.8%)
& workings of model are kept proprietary:
54%
52%
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